
Originally published in: World Politics Review on March 29, 2011
The U.S.-led military intervention in
One thing we have learned is that the president is very much a reluctant warrior, as was evident even before he launched what his press secretary calls a "time-limited, scope-limited" operation. Consider the president's statement on Libya in early March, when noted that his administration had "organized . . . a series of conversations about a wide range of options that we can take." To be sure, there are benefits to husbanding
More troubling than Obama's initial reluctance has been the administration's lack of clarity when it comes to Gadhafi's future. Before the allied bombs started falling, the president said he was in "consultation with the international community to try to achieve the goal of Mr. Gadhafi being removed from power." Although the president has since called for Gadhafi to step down, he was noticeably silent on the issue during his speech announcing the start of the war. Moreover, his surrogates and military team have muddied the waters. The goal of Odyssey Dawn, according to Sen. John Kerry, one of the president's allies in Congress, "is not to get rid of Gadhafi" because "that's not what the United Nations licensed." White House adviser Ben Rhodes added, "The effort of our military operation is not regime change." Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, conceded that a military stalemate resulting in Gadhaf staying in power is "a possibility." Yet, according to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the "final result of any negotiations would have to be the decision by Col. Gadhafi to leave."
In fact, Mullen is right. Even though the rebels are taking back lost ground thanks to Western air power, a stalemate is still possible. "The regime possesses the capability to roll them back very quickly," according to Gen. Carter F. Ham, commander of U.S. Africa Command. Moreover, given the alternatives before him, it seems likely that Gadhafi will fight to the last for
If the battle lines on the ground do settle into a stalemate, it will be due to the fact that so much was left up in the air by
Odyssey Dawn has also highlighted the paramount importance Obama places on gaining international consent to authorize and legitimize the application of
The Arab League, for example, asked for international intervention and promptly criticized the U.S.-led air armada after the intervention began. The GCC refuses to even call the allied intervention an "intervention."
As for the operational consequences, this war by committee, like others before it, is producing its share of headaches. The
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen now says the alliance is in charge of "all aspects" of the operation. But even though the public wrangling is now behind the alliance,
Moreover, it's still unclear how the alliance will address the issue of humanitarian intervention to protect civilians, something that the U.N. resolution expressly calls for: Member states are authorized to "use all necessary means . . . to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack." But one wonders how a no-fly zone and a "time-limited, scope-limited" air war will prevent Gadhafi from turning on the Libyan population when that air war ends, especially if regime change is not the objective.
This is not an argument against intervening in
Odyssey Dawn could topple Gadhafi despite Obama's initial reticence, ambiguity and ambivalence. But it might not, since toppling Gadhafi is not necessarily the objective. Obama needs to be prepared for that possibility -- and needs to avoid making this mistake the next time he's called upon to consider the use of
2902 N. Meridian Street, Indianapolis, IN 46208 | 317.472.2050 | | 501 (c)(3)